Action has already begun ahead of Tuesday’s MLB trade deadline.
On Wednesday, the White Sox traded Lucas Giolito to the Angels for two top prospects, setting the bar quite high for potential starting pitcher rentals. By making this trade, the Angels officially declared themselves as buyers as they try making a run for what could be the final season of the Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout pairing.
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This trade does have Yankees implications. The Angels are now just a half-game back of the Yankees in the chase for the third wild card spot, while New York is currently 2 1/2 games behind Toronto for a playoff berth. Also important to note, the Angels hold a tiebreaker over the Yankees if they were to finish the season with the same record because Los Angeles won the season series 4-2. It now seems very likely that the Yankees getting swept in Anaheim last week catapulted the Angels into going all out and buying at the deadline.
The Yankees are leaning toward buying before the deadline passes but they’ve yet to fully commit. A lot can be gleaned from the Yankees not 100 percent committing to a direction as of now, most importantly that they may not believe further investing in this year’s team would be a wise decision. The Yankees are up against the fourth luxury tax threshold; they could get under with a few cost-cutting moves. But continuing to pour money into this roster may be hard to stomach for owner Hal Steinbrenner, given the results this season.
Steinbrenner and general manager Brian Cashman have some important decisions to figure out in the days ahead. Here are five key questions they need to consider.
What should the Yankees’ priority be?
FanGraphs estimates the Yankees have a 33 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 3.4 percent chance of storming back from last place in the American League East and winning the division. The Yankees have a chance to make up ground in the division this weekend against Baltimore, the top team in the AL East. It’s a series that could fundamentally shape what the Yankees end up doing before the trade deadline passes. But the bigger picture question the Yankees should be asking themselves is should three games at Camden Yards change what direction they choose? Let’s say the Yankees sweep the Orioles; does that mean what they’ve shown for the past two months, in particular, is meaningless? What about the past 200 games, where the Yankees are just 103-97?
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The Yankees fired hitting coach Dillon Lawson out of desperation that it would spark a lifeless offense. It’s only 11 games — so of course the sample size is low — but the offense has been worse under Sean Casey. The Yankees have posted an 88 wRC+ against Colorado, Los Angeles, Kansas City and the Mets — teams not known for their world-renowned pitching staffs — with their new hitting coach. They’ve been shut down in this stretch by Chase Anderson, Austin Gomber, Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth, to name a few.
The Yankees had a 96 wRC+ before Lawson was axed. It’s not an indictment on Casey nor his coaching abilities but maybe the offense is just simply not good enough and no hitting coach is changing this group’s fortune.
The Yankees’ offense has produced 88 wRC+ under new hitting coach Sean Casey. (Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)But the Yankees are in a tough spot on how they should handle the deadline. Aaron Judge could be back in the lineup as soon as Friday. Gerrit Cole has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Selling at the deadline in any season while those two players are in their prime is not an easy call to make. The Yankees are also soon getting back Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Loáisiga, who should help the pitching staff.
Getting Judge back is the biggest “addition” the Yankees can make. He was nearly reproducing his 2022 production before he tore his right big toe ligament. But even before June 4 — the day Judge injured himself in Los Angeles — the Yankees’ offense was tied for 13th in wRC+. Since then, the Yankees have gotten below-average production from Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo, the three players they’re most counting on in Judge’s absence. Judge being back could help these veterans see better pitches, or opposing teams could simply just pitch around Judge and make the other Yankees beat them. That’s what happened in the second half of last season.
The state of the Yankees’ offense would suggest one trade likely isn’t changing their outlook. They’re in need of two, possibly three more external additions. That’s asking a lot in the middle of the season. The best strategy may be to add a left fielder, don’t mortgage the future, and hope Stanton, LeMahieu and Rizzo can get back on track for the rest of the season.
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If the Yankees are buying, what could they use?
The most obvious need the Yankees have is in left field. They’ve used nine different left fielders, with Oswaldo Cabrera leading the way at 36 games played. Cabrera is now in Triple A because he looked overmatched at the plate, and his defense in left field wasn’t as good as he looked in right field. As a team, left-field defense has cost the Yankees in big spots. They’re currently tied for fourth-worst in outs above average and tied for dead last in defensive runs saved.
Cashman went into the season with Cabrera and Aaron Hicks as his left-field options and it’s turned out to be an awful decision. Even if the Yankees don’t go all out and become big-time buyers at the deadline, stabilizing left field should be seen as a must.
The Yankees have interest in Rockies left fielder Randal Grichuk. He’d help the offense and could offer a platoon option versus left-handed pitching if the Yankees kept Billy McKinney or Jake Bauers as the option versus right-handers. The biggest issue with Grichuk is he’s graded out just as poorly as Bauers; they’re both at minus-5 in OAA.
The Yankees are interested in Colorado’s Randal Grichuk. (Megan Briggs / Getty Images)St. Louis’ Dylan Carlson makes sense as a target; he’s a positive defender and a switch hitter. The Yankees have struggled against right-handed pitching but Carlson hasn’t hit well from the left side of the plate. The Cubs’ Cody Bellinger has mostly played centerfield but if an outfielder can play centerfield, they likely could transition to left field with little problem. The Diamondbacks have a couple of players who could fit, like Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy.
Outside of left field, getting at least one more left-handed hitter should be a priority. Washington’s Jeimer Candelario, a switch hitter, should be a target. He’s a corner infielder but the Yankees have had problems at both positions this season, especially lately with Anthony Rizzo being MLB’s second-worst hitter over the past two months and DJ LeMahieu not far behind at seventh-worst. On the lower end of potential targets, Minnesota’s Max Kepler and Oakland’s Seth Brown could be OK bench options.
Getting another reliever, in addition to Loáisiga coming back, should be something the Yankees consider. The White Sox, who are sellers, have a few relievers who should interest the Yankees, such as Aaron Bummer, Joe Kelly, Keynan Middleton and Kendall Graveman.
If the Yankees sold, who could they move?
Given that the Yankees are emphasizing performance in the final games ahead of the deadline, what happens if they go 0-4, which would mean getting swept by the Orioles and dropping the first game of their series against the Rays on Monday? That would leave the Yankees at 53-52 before the trade deadline passes.
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The Blue Jays and Angels, two teams fighting for the third wild-card spot, have three games against each other this weekend. The Red Sox have three against the Giants. The Yankees are going up against the second-best team in the sport, a young Baltimore squad that would love to effectively derail a rival’s season.
If things went completely sideways for the Yankees, they’d have to at least entertain the idea of selling more than buying. One issue the Yankees have when it comes to selling is there’s no clear candidate to sell that could likely bring back an intriguing return.
Gleyber Torres would be the obvious candidate but he’s making $9.95 million this season and is under team control for next season. But because this is a buyer’s market, Torres would immediately become one of the better offensive options out there. If they were going to move on from Torres and let Oswald Peraza take over at second base, this would be the deadline to make that happen.
Harrison Bader would be the next-best option for the Yankees to sell. He is a free agent at the end of the season and eligible for the qualifying offer. There aren’t many quality centerfielders on the market this offseason and because of that, Bader may benefit. The Yankees should be cautious with how they handle Bader’s future. He is frequently hurt and is another light-hitting, right-handed bat for a team that doesn’t need more oft-injured, light-hitting, right-handed bats. The qualifying offer for Bader makes sense as it’s only a one-year deal and gives the team more time to figure out Jasson Domínguez’s, Everson Pereira’s and Spencer Jones’ big-league futures. But a pricey long-term deal has the potential to hamper the Yankees.
The next best options are Luis Severino, Domingo Germán, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Wandy Peralta. Because so many teams need starting pitching, maybe the Yankees could take advantage and get a team to overpay for Severino and/or Germán.
Trading cost-controlled relievers like Clay Holmes, Michael King, Ian Hamilton or Ron Marinaccio doesn’t make much sense because the Yankees obviously want to contend in 2024 and they’re cheap, which gives them the flexibility to add elsewhere.
Who do the Yankees have in their minor-league system?
The Yankees have several notable players who become Rule 5 eligible this offseason: outfielders Domínguez, Brandon Lockridge and Elijah Dunham; catchers Carlos Narvaez, Austin Wells, Agustin Ramirez and Antonio Gomez; infielders Jared Serna and Andres Chaparro; and pitchers Clayton Beeter, Matt Bauer, Juan Carela and Edgar Barclay. If the Yankees make trades, don’t be surprised if these are some of the players who get dealt.
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If the Yankees don’t trade any of these players, they’d have to be placed on the 40-man roster this offseason to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Of those players, Domínguez, Wells and Beeter are the likeliest to make the 40-man next season.
Jasson Domínguez has lift off!
The @Yankees' No. 1 prospect swats his second homer in three games for the @SOMPatriots. pic.twitter.com/65aaPYtT9t
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 19, 2023
As of now, the Yankees don’t plan on trading top prospects like Domínguez, Pereira, Spencer Jones, Chase Hampton and Drew Thorpe. Those players would likely only be dealt in a superstar-level trade, and no superstar appears available at this time.
Overall, the Yankees’ farm system is good but not great. There’s some solid depth on the lower levels but not many players who are currently pushing for the big leagues. Because the Yankees have several holes to fill that would likely be best addressed in the offseason, it seems wise to hold on to their top prospects instead of go all out for rentals.
How does Judge look coming back from injury?
Judge has told reporters that he expects to play through discomfort for the rest of the season and earlier this month he didn’t rule out offseason surgery. How Judge looks at less than 100 percent health is likely better than most players at full strength, but with how poor the offense has been, they better hope he can be close to the version he was prior to the injury.
If Judge does come back and isn’t himself, I do wonder if it would get to a point where the Yankees and the reigning American League MVP think long-term rather than try gutting it out, especially if the team doesn’t look like a true contender.
(Top photo of Anthony Volpe: Brad Penner / USA TODAY Sports)
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