The Buffalo Sabres have won four straight games and are now just three points back in the race for the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. As a result, they’ve become an intriguing team to monitor at the trade deadline. General manager Kevyn Adams has the cap space, draft picks and prospect pool to swing a deal if he chooses.
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This week, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported that the Sabres are among the teams that have called the San Jose Sharks about winger Timo Meier.
Meier is a legitimate top-line talent who is in the middle of the best season of his NHL career. After putting up 76 points in 77 games a year ago, Meier has 48 points through 49 games this season. At just 26 years old, he should have plenty of prime seasons left. He’s a big body at 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds and uses that size to drive play and create scoring opportunities. Meier leads the NHL in shots (153) and shot attempts (293) at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick. He’s also in the top two in rush attempts, rebounds created and individual high-danger chances created at five-on-five. He’s also not a liability on defense. The Sharks have 58 percent of the expected goals and 65 percent of the high-danger scoring chances when Meier is on the ice.
It’s clear Meier can dominate at five-on-five, but he’s also scored 12 power-play goals this year and could be an asset there for the Sabres. Right now, the Sabres have a top line that they may not want to juggle. Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch have shown dynamic chemistry throughout the season and have been productive. Meier, though, could be the perfect addition to a line with Dylan Cozens. Cozens has been playing between rookie Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka. That line had some major bright moments early in the season, but Quinn and Peterka have both hit rookie plateaus at various points in the year. Meier would instantly make the Sabres’ top six more dangerous.
Meier is 26 years old, so he should still have plenty of prime seasons left in him. He’s also a restricted free agent after the season, not an unrestricted free agent. That would give any team that trades for him control over him for next season. He’s currently due to get a qualifying offer of $10 million next season. But any team that trades for him would likely want assurance that he would be willing to sign a long-term extension. LeBrun reports that he’s going to want at least $9 million annually. The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn calculates his market value at $10.8 million. Had he been a free agent last offseason, Evolving Hockey projected an eight-year contract worth $8.2 million annually. So the $9 million figure LeBrun reported is a logical ask from Meier’s camp.
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The Sabres are flush with cap space, so that’s not an issue. But Adams has been adamant about not making moves that would disrupt the long-term vision he and Don Granato have for this team. Buffalo may have a ton of salary cap space to work with, but Adams also has some big contracts coming up. Cozens will command an extension that could push $8 million per year. Rasmus Dahlin could get a deal in the neighborhood of $10 million per year. Next year is the final year of Owen Power’s entry-level deal, and he could be in for a hefty raise if he progresses at his current rate.
If the Sabres were to trade for Meier, they need to factor in those future contracts to figure out where he would fit in the big picture. That cap space is going to dry up quickly, and there’s no guarantee that the salary cap will go up substantially in the next few years.
Meier’s contract isn’t the only cost the Sabres need to consider, either. Given his age and production, the Sharks aren’t going to trade Meier for too cheap. They don’t need to be in a rush to make a deal. He’s a restricted free agent, so the Sharks could wait until the draft if they aren’t getting an offer they like.
The closest and most recent comparable to a Meier trade would be the Alex DeBrincat deal Chicago and Ottawa made last summer. The Blackhawks traded DeBrincat to the Senators for the No. 7 overall pick, the No. 39 overall pick and a 2023 second-round pick. DeBrincat was younger at the time of the trade than Meier is now. He also had an extra year on his contract. But that’s probably the jumping-off point.
The Sabres have a deep pool of prospects and young NHL players who could be included in such a trade. Jiri Kulich and Isak Rosen are attractive trade chips in Rochester. It may take one or both to get a deal done in addition to a first-round pick.
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Ultimately, Adams will have a tough time justifying a trade if he can’t also sign Meier to a long-term contract. He has been steadfast in his belief that the best way for the Sabres to build this team is through drafting and developing their own players. Eventually, he will have to supplement that with free-agent and trade additions. But when he does so, he doesn’t want to do it at the expense of being able to sign those rising young players to the market-level extensions they’ve earned.
Because the Sabres are making a strong push for the playoffs, Adams will naturally feel an increased temptation to make a trade. This franchise has an 11-year playoff drought, and breaking that would not only be good for business, but it would also be tremendous experience for such a young roster. Is this the time to make a push or will Adams opt to continue along the more patient path and let this roster grow from within?
(Photo: Rick Osentoski / USA TODAY Sports)
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